Hiring is not a growth problem. It is a replacement problem.
Across the 18 federal occupations commercial trades recruiting draws from, the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects about 1,082,700 openings a year. Only about 4.6% of them exist because the industry is growing. The rest are seats somebody vacated.
The short answer
Commercial trades employment in the United States is about 10,542,400 across these 18 occupations. BLS projects an average of 1,082,700 openings a year through 2035 — roughly 10.3% of the workforce every year.
Spread the projected ten-year employment change over ten years and it accounts for about 49,594 of those openings, or 4.6%. The remaining 95.4% are replacement: people who retired, changed occupation, or left the workforce. In 14 of the 18 occupations, growth explains less than a tenth of the annual hiring.
This is why a contractor can read “2% projected growth” for janitors and building cleaners and still not be able to staff a crew. That occupation needs about 321,800 hires a year.
Annual openings and replacement rate, by occupation
Sorted by replacement rate — openings as a share of the people already doing the job. Every row links to the handbook page its figures come from.
| Trade | BLS occupation | Median pay | Employed | Growth 2025–35 | Openings / yr | Replacement rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LED & Solar | Solar Photovoltaic Installers | $53,140 | 31,100 | 37% | 4,200 | 13.5% |
| Commercial Cleaning | Janitors and Building Cleaners | $36,840 | 2,432,600 | 2% | 321,800 | 13.2% |
| Commercial Pest Control | Pest Control Workers | $45,250 | 108,700 | 6% | 13,700 | 12.6% |
| Commercial Landscaping | Grounds Maintenance Workers | $40,080 | 1,299,200 | 5% | 162,500 | 12.5% |
| Commercial Trucking | Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | $58,640 | 2,221,200 | 4% | 214,500 | 9.7% |
| HVAC & Mechanical | Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers | $61,010 | 440,900 | 11% | 40,600 | 9.2% |
| Welding & Fabrication | Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers | $53,750 | 437,700 | 2% | 40,300 | 9.2% |
| Commercial Electrical | Electricians | $63,190 | 821,000 | 9% | 72,700 | 8.9% |
| Commercial Plumbing | Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters | $63,800 | 510,600 | 7% | 42,000 | 8.2% |
| Commercial Construction | Construction Managers | $114,990 | 609,100 | 9% | 49,700 | 8.2% |
| Paving & Asphalt | Construction Equipment Operators | $59,600 | 534,100 | 4% | 42,500 | 8.0% |
| Elevator Maintenance | Elevator and Escalator Installers and Repairers | $109,910 | 24,700 | 6% | 1,900 | 7.7% |
| Commercial Painting | Painters, Construction and Maintenance | $49,400 | 326,900 | 3% | 24,900 | 7.6% |
| HVAC & Mechanical (sheet metal) | Sheet Metal Workers | $61,800 | 131,100 | 3% | 9,800 | 7.5% |
| Commercial Roofing | Roofers | $55,440 | 166,900 | 5% | 12,000 | 7.2% |
| Insulation | Insulation Workers | $51,330 | 71,900 | 3% | 4,800 | 6.7% |
| Masonry & Concrete | Masonry Workers | $58,270 | 277,700 | 1% | 18,400 | 6.6% |
| Commercial Flooring | Flooring Installers and Tile and Stone Setters | $54,390 | 97,000 | 4% | 6,400 | 6.6% |
| All 18 occupations | — | — | 10,542,400 | — | 1,082,700 | 10.3% |
Annual replacement rate is our own arithmetic: BLS publishes projected average annual openings and base-year employment separately, and this is the first divided by the second. Totals are our sum of the 18 federal occupations that map to the trades we recruit for. BLS does not publish a combined figure for this group, and the group is not the whole construction workforce.
Growth explains almost none of it
The same table, read a different way. For each occupation: how much of the yearly hiring exists because the occupation is getting bigger.
| BLS occupation | Openings / yr | From growth | From replacement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solar Photovoltaic Installers | 4,200 | 27.4% | 72.6% |
| Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers | 40,600 | 11.9% | 88.1% |
| Construction Managers | 49,700 | 11.0% | 89.0% |
| Electricians | 72,700 | 10.2% | 89.8% |
| Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters | 42,000 | 8.5% | 91.5% |
| Elevator and Escalator Installers and Repairers | 1,900 | 7.8% | 92.2% |
| Roofers | 12,000 | 7.0% | 93.0% |
| Flooring Installers and Tile and Stone Setters | 6,400 | 6.1% | 93.9% |
| Construction Equipment Operators | 42,500 | 5.0% | 95.0% |
| Pest Control Workers | 13,700 | 4.8% | 95.2% |
| Insulation Workers | 4,800 | 4.5% | 95.5% |
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 214,500 | 4.1% | 95.9% |
| Sheet Metal Workers | 9,800 | 4.0% | 96.0% |
| Grounds Maintenance Workers | 162,500 | 4.0% | 96.0% |
| Painters, Construction and Maintenance | 24,900 | 3.9% | 96.1% |
| Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers | 40,300 | 2.2% | 97.8% |
| Janitors and Building Cleaners | 321,800 | 1.5% | 98.5% |
| Masonry Workers | 18,400 | 1.5% | 98.5% |
Solar Photovoltaic Installers is the one real exception, at 27.4% — projected growth of 37% on a small base of 31,100. It is the only occupation here where a meaningful share of hiring is genuinely new work.
At the other end, masonry workers sit at 1.5%. Essentially every hire is a refill.
What this means for hiring
- A flat projection is not a quiet market. The occupations with the lowest projected growth here carry some of the largest absolute hiring needs. Growth and hiring difficulty are close to unrelated.
- Replacement demand does not respond to recruiting spend. People leaving an occupation is a stock-and-flow problem, not a marketing one. You cannot advertise your way out of a replacement rate.
- The pipeline argument is about the wrong number. Apprenticeship intake addresses the entry tier. Replacement at the experienced and supervisory end is a different problem, and a slower one — see our trades workforce age analysis, where the gap between the entry tier and the people who run a crew is nearly 18 years.
- It differs enormously by trade. The spread in this table runs from 6.6% to 13.5% a year. A staffing plan built on an industry average will be wrong for almost every specific trade.
Common questions
How many commercial trades workers need to be hired each year in the US?
About 1,082,700 a year across the 18 federal occupations that commercial trades recruiting draws from, against a base of 10,542,400 employed. That is roughly 10.3% of the workforce replaced or added every year, on the Bureau of Labor Statistics 2025-35 projections.
Are commercial trades jobs growing?
Barely, and that is the point. Only about 4.6% of annual openings exist because the occupation is growing. The other 95.4% exist because somebody left the occupation. In 14 of the 18 occupations, growth accounts for under a tenth of the yearly hiring.
Which commercial trade has the most openings each year?
Janitors and Building Cleaners, at about 321,800 openings a year against 2,432,600 employed, on projected growth of just 2%. Nearly all of that hiring is refilling jobs that already exist.
Which trade is actually growing rather than just replacing people?
Solar Photovoltaic Installers, where projected growth of 37% accounts for about 27.4% of annual openings. It is the clear exception; no other occupation in this analysis comes close.
Why does a trade with low projected growth still have a hiring problem?
Because projected growth measures whether the number of jobs changes, not how many people have to be hired. An occupation can be flat for a decade and still need six figures of hiring every year, because workers retire, change occupations or leave the workforce. Growth is the smaller of the two forces almost everywhere in the commercial trades.
Where does this data come from?
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Outlook Handbook. Median wages are May 2025, employment is the 2025 base year, and growth and average annual openings are the 2025-35 projections. Each occupation links to the handbook page its figures come from. The split between growth and replacement is our arithmetic on two figures BLS publishes separately.
Methodology and sources
What is not here
3 of the trades we recruit for have no detailed occupation in the handbook, so no figure is published for them rather than a proxy being substituted:
- Fire Protection. BLS publishes no detailed occupation for fire sprinkler fitters or fire alarm technicians. Sprinkler fitters are counted inside Plumbers, Pipefitters and Steamfitters (47-2152); fire alarm installers fall under Security and Fire Alarm Systems Installers (49-2098), which the Occupational Outlook Handbook does not profile. We do not publish a national figure for this trade.
- Physical Security. Security and Fire Alarm Systems Installers (49-2098) is the closest federal occupation and the Occupational Outlook Handbook does not profile it, so there is no published median wage, employment base or openings projection to cite. We do not publish a national figure for this trade.
- Commercial Irrigation. Irrigation technicians have no federal occupation code of their own. They are distributed across Grounds Maintenance Workers (37-3010) and Plumbers, Pipefitters and Steamfitters (47-2152) depending on the work, so neither can be presented as this trade. We do not publish a national figure for this trade.
BLS rounds employment and openings, and we have not added precision it does not publish. This data is free to cite with attribution.